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Master the Monte Carlo Simulation App! 🎲
Imagine you have a Value Stream Map (VSM) and want to calculate the real cycle time for a process. If you simply average the times, you’ll end up with a rigid, overly simplified calculation. But with Monte Carlo simulation, you can factor in variability and randomness to get a much more realistic and dynamic prediction of your process performance.
How It Works
The Monte Carlo Simulation App lets you define multiple steps in a process and specify the range of time for each step. Using your input data, it runs simulations over thousands of iterations to produce realistic and data-backed predictions.
INSTRUCTIONS
Step 1: Set the Number of Iterations
📊 In the ‘Number of Iterations’ field, input how many simulation runs you’d like. A higher number of iterations gives more accurate results but takes longer to compute.
Step 2: Configure Your Steps
🛠️ Add steps to define your process:
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Step Name: Give each step a name to easily identify it (e.g., "Assemble Product" or "Quality Check").
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Min Time & Max Time: Enter the minimum and maximum times (in units you choose) for the step. This range will simulate variability in the process.
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Behavior: Select a distribution for the step from the dropdown (e.g., Normal for a bell curve).
🌀 Need more steps? Click ‘Add Step’ to expand your process. You can remove steps with the ‘Remove Step’ button.
Step 3: Run the Simulation
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🚀 Once all steps are configured, hit ‘Run Simulation’ to start! The app will crunch the numbers and generate results to help you make better decisions.
Step 3: Run the Simulation
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📊 At the bottom, you’ll find a Summary Report with critical statistics:
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Minimum and Maximum Total Cycle Times
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Expected Average Total Cycle Time
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Standard Deviation of Cycle Times
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Probability within ±5% of the Average
Use the bar chart and summary to analyze
your results and make informed decisions! 🎯
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